Core Inflation Hit Waller's Line at 0.3%, Nvidia Lost Another 5.5%, and Monday's Rally Gave Some Back

Monday priced relief before proof — oil down $5.75, stocks having their best day since April, all of it spent before the one report that could prove it even printed. Tuesday the proof arrived, and it pointed the other way. The whole day hangs off one thread: the price of money just got repriced higher, and everything attached to cheap money — or to one man's name — paid for it.

Start with the number the Fed told us to watch. Hours before the release, Governor Christopher Waller had drawn the line in public: a core reading around 0.3% would put a half-point December hike on the table. October core CPI printed exactly 0.3% — the third straight month at 0.3%, against 0.2% expected — and headline rose 0.4%, a tenth above the 0.3% forecast, down from September's 0.6%. In plain English: inflation cooled from September's pace and still ran hotter than anyone budgeted for. Shelter rose 0.3% and drove more than 30% of the increase, food rose 0.5%, and energy rose just 0.7% after September's 5.2% surge — the oil collapse is already in this print, and core still would not bend. There is no annual rate to hide behind this month: the Bureau of Labor Statistics never collected October 2025 prices during last year's shutdown, so no 12-month comparison exists. And this is the last CPI the Fed sees before it votes — the November report lands December 10, the day after the December 8–9 meeting ends.

The market heard it in the bond pit first. The 2-year Treasury yield — the market's direct line to the Fed — jumped about 19 basis points to 4.74%, its biggest one-day rise since the April 2025 tariff shock, and the 10-year rose about 13 basis points to 4.99% after touching 5.03%. A December quarter-point hike is now fully priced; a half-point move, priced at roughly zero on Monday, sat somewhere between one-in-ten and one-in-seven by late Tuesday depending on the snapshot. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan piled on the same day, saying the Fed needs at least two more quarter-point hikes, while Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman offered the one caution — that the benefit of further hikes has to be weighed against the cost to housing and other rate-sensitive corners. Stocks, to their credit, took it like a repricing and not a panic: the S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 7,520.93, the Nasdaq fell 0.74% to 25,065.87, the Dow fell 0.30% to 52,231.89, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.68% to 2,821.38 — all three big indexes well above their session lows, technology the worst sector at down more than 1%, and the VIX actually easing 2.41% to 19.44. Gold, which pays no yield, took the rate shock clean: futures fell 1.82% to $4,039.70 an ounce.

The second thread is a name, not a number. Nvidia fell another 5.47% to $168.89 — down 9.5% in two sessions, roughly $430 billion of market value gone — after The Information reported that CEO Jensen Huang's relationship with a former Megaspeed executive may have helped facilitate at least $7.5 billion of chip shipments to Chinese firms, including some restricted for sale in China. Be precise about what this is: allegations, which Reuters said it could not independently verify, sitting on top of a board investigation that is very real — on Tuesday the independent directors put former acting U.S. Attorney Joon H. Kim and the firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz in charge of it, and Huang faces a Wednesday deadline to answer three House committees' request for a briefing. Nvidia says it has no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised. The tell that this is company-specific, not a sector story: Broadcom rose 3.91% and AMD rose about 1.3% on the same tape, and the semiconductor index finished near flat. The market is not selling AI. It is selling one company's governance, seven days before that company reports earnings on November 17.

Oil kept sliding through all of it, and for once cheaper oil could not rescue stocks — because Tuesday's problem was never supply. December WTI settled down 0.9% at $86.04, January Brent settled down 1.2% at $91.49, and Brent dipped below $90 intraday for the first time since August as the Iran war premium kept unwinding. Two days ago that fall was the rally. Yesterday it was just a falling knife nobody needed to catch: when the fear is the Fed, a cheaper barrel does not lower anyone's discount rate.

Crypto sold the same story harder. Bitcoin closed the UTC day at $73,796, down 2.09% after touching roughly $72,700, and Ethereum closed at $2,053, down 3.84% — both near three-month lows. The Fear & Greed Index slipped back to 29, Fear, from 32. The flows agree with the price: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost another $95 million on Tuesday, a fourth straight outflow day, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $78.2 million of it, and spot ether ETFs lost $2 million. And the corporate bid that carried this cycle is still unwinding in public — MARA disclosed it sold 13,597 bitcoin for about $1.1 billion in six weeks at an average near $81,039 a coin, used $750 million of it to repay every bitcoin-backed loan it had, and says it intends to keep selling to fund its AI pivot. Stocks gave back a slice of Monday. Crypto gave back the level.

One more arrival worth its own breath: Anthropic opened its IPO roadshow Tuesday — 825 million shares at $70 to $78, which is $57.75 billion to $64.35 billion of gross proceeds, a Nasdaq listing under ANT, a conditional $26 billion private placement right behind it from names like Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft and TSMC Partners, and $33.2 billion of revenue for the first nine months of 2026 in the amended filing. BogusAPY's IPO Watch already scored this one 62, Mixed, and put it on the dodge side of the track — the roadshow does not change the math that got it there; it just gives the math a price range. And on the cost-cut ledger, PepsiCo told staff it will cut about 1,000 jobs across North America this week, and Boeing will cut about 5% of its commercial airplanes workforce — a unit of roughly 50,500 people — through layoffs and attrition as the 737 ramp slips. Two different industries, same sentence: simplify, slow, spend less.

The earnings desk

After the close came the print this brief has been circling for two days. CoreWeave beat the growth line and confirmed the debt line in the same release: revenue of $3.66 billion against about $3.54 billion expected, up 168% from a year earlier; adjusted operating income of $379 million, well above the $200 to $260 million it had guided; backlog up to about $132.5 billion from $104.2 billion; full-year revenue guidance raised to $13.0 to $13.3 billion. And underneath it, net interest expense of $846 million — inside the $860 to $940 million guided range, still more than twice the adjusted operating income — a net loss of $709 million, or $1.27 a share, debt and lease liabilities up to about $66 billion, and fourth-quarter interest guided at $1.05 to $1.15 billion. The stock had closed down 0.51% at $48.73 and edged higher after hours: the market liked the growth and is still deciding what to charge for the balance sheet.

The rest of Tuesday's desk split the same way — clean numbers rewarded, footnotes punished. AAON was the day's cleanest beat: 83 cents a share against 57 cents expected, record revenue of $707.4 million, up 84.1%, with its BASX data-center cooling sales up 218% to $397.2 million, and full-year sales growth guidance raised for a third time, to 72–75% — the stock rose 19.31% to $75.01, and even that print carried a footnote, a first-half restatement and a disclosed material weakness in its reporting controls. TransDigm closed its fiscal year at $12.44 a share against roughly $12.21 to $12.33 expected, on sales of $2.988 billion, up 23%, guided fiscal 2027 revenue at $11.95 to $12.15 billion, and bought back $943 million of stock in the quarter. Sea Limited grew into a miss: revenue up 43.4% to $8.6 billion, ahead of forecasts, but earnings of $0.78 a share against a $1.04 consensus and adjusted EBITDA of $931.3 million against about $990 million expected — the shares closed down 1.49% at $76.80, with a fresh $1 billion buyback authorization as the cushion. Venture Global's headline needs its footnote read aloud: diluted earnings of $0.96 a share against about $0.50 expected, on revenue of $4.76 billion, up 43% — but $1.37 billion of the $2.55 billion net income was a gain on interest-rate swaps, not gas sold; strip it out and the operating quarter was still a record, adjusted EBITDA up 69% to $2.58 billion, and full-year EBITDA guidance raised about 14% at the midpoint to $10.0 to $10.3 billion. Petrobras ran the mirror image: revenue of about $32.9 billion beat, production hit a record 3.51 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, and net income of 39.8 billion reais, up 21.5%, still missed the roughly 46.8 billion expected — that one gets its full telling in the BogusAPY angle. And Skydance, in its first report since the Warner Bros. Discovery merger closed, beat on the quarter — Paramount revenue up 5% to $7.03 billion, adjusted earnings of $0.45 against $0.18 expected, Paramount+ revenue up 21% to $2.13 billion on 82.2 million subscribers — then warned the Warner film slate creates a $200 million EBITDA headwind next quarter, and the stock fell 7.59% to $8.04.

Reporting today is light on purpose — it is Veterans Day, stocks trade a full session and the bond market is closed, so there is no fresh Treasury signal to trade against. After the close: Corteva, expected at $0.09 a share on $1.77 billion of revenue in its first report since spinning off its seed business as Vylor on October 1 — the quarter itself is seasonally its weakest, so the print will be judged on the first stand-alone guidance, target margins and capital-allocation plan, not the nine cents. And Franco-Nevada, expected at $1.77 a share on $568.4 million — a gold royalty name reporting the morning after gold fell 1.82%, judged on royalty volumes and whether guidance holds with the metal off its highs.

The trending tape

Nvidia owned the tape by money traded: about $83.3 billion of dollar volume, 420.8 million shares — more than three times its three-month average — on the investigation story told above. Its re-scored BogusAPY review, 66 out of 100, Mixed, publishes today, which tells you how fast this story has moved: the score was 81 before the weekend. The rest of the chip complex traded like a different sector — AMD up 1.30% to $515.21, and AMD carries a Reality Score of 62, Mixed, on the Scoreboard; Broadcom up 3.91% to $331.98; Micron down 1.13% to $724.86 on the third-heaviest dollar volume of the day. Take-Two jumped 8.31% to $224.64 as pre-orders for the November 19 Grand Theft Auto VI launch were described as unprecedented — Monday's soft bookings print is officially forgiven. MARA rose about 10.5% to $7.34 on the buyback-and-debt-paydown read of its shareholder letter, the same letter that disclosed the $1.1 billion bitcoin sale. PepGen nearly doubled, up 93.3% to $4.62 on about nine times its average volume, after its Phase 2 FREEDOM2-DM1 trial posted a 46.5% mean splicing correction — the highest ever reported in a multiple-dose study for myotonic dystrophy type 1, against 6.8% on placebo — and then announced a proposed $125 million share offering after the close, which is the other half of every biotech spike. TTEC rose 71.3% to $2.39 on about twelve times its average volume even though its quarter missed — margins improved, guidance was reaffirmed, and its credit facility was extended to November 2028; with about $744 million of net debt against a market value near $69 million, small changes in what the business is worth swing the stock violently, which is a description, not an endorsement. And one line for SMX, up 105.6% to $19.22: a reverse split and a tiny float, no fundamental catalyst found — exactly that, and nothing more.

The invention spotlight

Tuesday's genuinely new thing is a wire that does two jobs hearts have always needed done separately. Abbott won FDA approval — and a European CE Mark the same day — for UltiSynq, a defibrillation lead designed to sit in the heart's left bundle branch area, the heart's own electrical wiring, and deliver both conduction-system pacing and a defibrillation shock from that one spot. The human problem: people at risk of sudden cardiac death need a device that can pace the heart in rhythm and shock it back when rhythm fails, and pacing through the heart's natural conduction system restores a more coordinated heartbeat than pacing muscle directly. In the ASCEND trial — about 205 patients across the U.S., Canada, Europe and Asia-Pacific — implants succeeded in 98.5% of patients, 86% achieved true or likely left bundle branch pacing, 97.5% were free of major complications at three months, and defibrillation succeeded 100% of the time. The device carried an FDA breakthrough designation, which is the regulator's way of saying the idea mattered enough to review first. One wire, threaded into the heart's own circuitry, that keeps time and stands guard. Approved yesterday, on both sides of the Atlantic at once.

The oversold corner

The screen ran this morning on 126 assets — large caps, midcaps, microcaps, and the top cryptos, from Yahoo Finance and Coinbase daily closes — and 21 meet all three tests: RSI at or below 35, MACD bearish, price under the 90-day average. Nvidia now leads the whole screen at $168.89, RSI 23.9, 21.5% below its 90-day average — yesterday it was fifth at an RSI of 27.4; one more 5.47% down day on an investigation headline did that. XRP is second at $1.06, RSI 24.2, 21.3% below — it carries a Reality Score of 35 out of 100, Thin, on the Scoreboard, and it is still sliding with the crypto complex it cannot escape. Solana is third at $83.68, RSI 25.4, 18.3% below, down with Ethereum while the rate story does the driving. Opendoor is fourth at $1.31, RSI 25.4, and still the deepest hole on the board at 56.7% below its average — a mortgage-dependent housing name on the day a December hike became a certainty and a half-point became a live option; there is no worse headline for that business model. ServiceNow is fifth at $99.61, RSI 27.1, 21.3% below — a profitable software name whose multiple is being re-marked against a 5% 10-year yield in real time. Just outside the five, Ethereum itself now flags at an RSI of 29.6 and Bitcoin at 34.4 — when the two biggest coins in crypto meet an oversold screen built for beaten-down stocks, the screen is telling you about the macro, not about any one asset. Oversold is a description, not a buy idea.

BogusAPY angle

Yesterday this brief asked the CoreWeave question out loud: does the growth ever outrun the interest bill, and who gets paid while we wait? Last night's print answered the first half honestly. The growth did outrun expectations — revenue up 168%, adjusted operating income $379 million against $200 to $260 million guided. It did not outrun the interest bill: $846 million of net interest is still more than two dollars owed to lenders for every dollar of adjusted operating income, the loss widened to $709 million, and the fourth quarter's interest is guided higher still, at $1.05 to $1.15 billion. The backlog — $132.5 billion — is real contracted demand, and only about 36% of it is scheduled to convert within 24 months. So the motto holds exactly as written: where does the money come from? Customers, really. How is it distributed to the holders? After the lenders, after $37 to $39 billion of guided capital spending — holders are last in a line that got longer this quarter, not shorter. Second hook, same lesson in a dividend costume: Petrobras produced a record 3.51 million barrels a day, beat on revenue, and still approved a payout of about $2.7 billion against roughly $3.8 billion expected, because capital spending guidance jumped from $19.4 billion to $24 to $25.5 billion in the same release. A distribution is never the headline number. It is what is left after the build gets fed — in AI data centers, in offshore oil, everywhere. Find the spending line first, then ask what remains for you.

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Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, October 2026 (USDL-26-1685), released November 10, 2026, via Reuters and BLS summaries (headline +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% expected and +0.6% in September; core +0.3% for a third straight month vs +0.2% expected; shelter +0.3% accounting for over 30% of the increase, rent +0.2%; food +0.5%; energy +0.7% after +5.2%; no 12-month rate published because October 2025 prices were never collected during the 2025 shutdown; November CPI due December 10, after the December 8-9 FOMC); Federal Reserve speech text and Reuters, November 10 (Governor Christopher Waller, London: a core reading around 0.3% puts a 50bp December hike under consideration; Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan: at least two more quarter-point hikes needed; Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman on weighing hike benefits against housing and rate-sensitive costs); CME FedWatch via Reuters, CNBC, CoinDesk and Seoul Economic Daily, November 10-11 (December quarter-point hike fully priced, up from about 84% Monday; half-point odds from near zero to roughly 9-15% across the day's snapshots); Reuters and AP market closes, November 10 (S&P 500 7,520.93, -0.38%; Nasdaq Composite 25,065.87, -0.74%; Dow 52,231.89, -0.30%; Russell 2000 2,821.38, -0.68%; VIX 19.44, -2.41%; technology worst S&P sector, down more than 1%; 2-year Treasury yield 4.74%, up about 19bp, largest one-day rise since April 2025; 10-year 4.99%, up about 13bp after touching 5.03%; gold futures $4,039.70, -1.82%); Bloomberg settlements via Market Briefer, November 10 (December WTI settled $86.04, -0.9%; January Brent settled $91.49, -1.2%; Brent below $90 intraday for the first time since August); Nvidia coverage via Reuters, The Motley Fool, The Information and board statements, November 10-11 (NVDA closed $168.89, -5.47%; two-day loss about 9.5% and roughly $430 billion of market value from Friday's $186.64 close; volume 420.8 million shares vs a 127.2 million three-month average; The Information reported the Huang relationship may have facilitated at least $7.5 billion of chip shipments to Chinese firms — allegations Reuters could not independently verify; independent directors appointed Joon H. Kim and Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz to lead the board investigation; House committees' briefing request due Wednesday; earnings November 17); KuCoin, CoinGecko and alternative.me, November 11, 00:00 UTC (BTC $73,796, -2.09%, intraday low near $72,700; ETH $2,053, -3.84%; SOL $83.35-83.68; Fear & Greed Index 29, Fear, down from 32); Farside figures via CoinDesk and FXStreet, November 10 (U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs -$95.0 million, fourth straight outflow day, IBIT -$78.2 million; spot ether ETFs -$2.0 million); MARA Holdings Q3 shareholder letter via CoinDesk and Bitcoin Magazine, November 10 (sold 13,597 BTC for about $1.1 billion at an average near $81,039 after September 30; $750 million repaid all bitcoin-backed term loans; intends further sales for AI infrastructure and note puts; $500 million buyback authorized; Q3 revenue $164.2 million, -35%); Anthropic amended IPO filing via Market Briefer, November 10 (roadshow launched; 825 million Class A shares at $70.00-$78.00, gross proceeds $57.75-$64.35 billion; Nasdaq symbol ANT; conditional $26 billion private placement including Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft and TSMC Partners; nine-month 2026 revenue $33.2 billion; registration not yet effective); PepsiCo and Boeing staff letters via Market Briefer, November 10 (PepsiCo about 1,000 North America job cuts; Boeing about 5% of commercial airplanes workforce, a unit of about 50,500 at end-2025, on a slower 737 ramp); CoreWeave Q3 2026 results, SEC Form 8-K exhibit, November 10 (revenue $3.661 billion, +168%, vs about $3.54-$3.55 billion consensus; adjusted operating income $379 million vs $200-$260 million guided; GAAP operating income $207 million; net interest expense $846 million vs $310 million a year earlier; net loss $709 million, -$1.27 a share; backlog about $132.5 billion, about 36% to be recognized within 24 months; FY2026 revenue guidance raised to $13.0-$13.3 billion; capex guidance $37-$39 billion; Q4 interest expense guided at $1.05-$1.15 billion; debt and lease liabilities about $66 billion; shares closed $48.73, -0.51%, edged higher after hours); AAON Q3 via Earnings Whispers, Benzinga and company release, November 10 (adjusted EPS $0.83 vs $0.57 consensus; record net sales $707.4 million, +84.1%; BASX data-center sales $397.2 million, +218%; FY2026 sales growth guidance raised to 72-75% from 55-60%; first-half restatement and material weakness disclosed; shares +19.31% to $75.01); TransDigm fiscal Q4 via company release and Earnings Whispers, November 10 (adjusted EPS $12.44 vs about $12.21-$12.33 consensus; net sales $2.988 billion, +23%; FY2027 revenue guidance $11.95-$12.15 billion; $943 million of Q4 buybacks); Sea Limited Q3 via company release, Bloomberg and Market Briefer, November 10 (revenue $8.6 billion, +43.4%; EPS $0.78 vs $1.04 consensus; adjusted EBITDA $931.3 million, +28.9%, vs about $990 million expected; net income $502.5 million, +34.0%; additional $1.0 billion buyback authorization; shares -1.49% to $76.80); Venture Global Q3 via SEC 8-K and company release, November 10 (diluted EPS $0.96 vs about $0.50-$0.51 expected; revenue $4.756 billion, +43%; net income $2.546 billion including a $1.37 billion gain on interest-rate swaps; adjusted EBITDA $2.583 billion, +69%; FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $10.0-$10.3 billion from $8.7-$9.1 billion; 124 cargoes, 465.8 TBtu sold; Plaquemines Phase 1 commercial operations began October 31); Petrobras Q3 via company release, Reuters and Bloomberg estimates, November 10 (net income R$39.8 billion, +21.5%, vs about R$46.8 billion expected; revenue about $32.9 billion; record production 3.51 million boe/d; approved remuneration R$15.3 billion, about $2.7 billion, vs about $3.8 billion expected; 2026 capex guidance raised to $24-$25.5 billion from $19.4 billion; production outlook raised to 3.3-3.4 million boe/d); Skydance / Paramount via Market Briefer, November 10 (first post-merger report: revenue $7.03 billion, +5%; adjusted EPS $0.45 vs $0.18 expected; Paramount+ revenue $2.13 billion, +21%, 82.2 million subscribers; $200 million Q4 adjusted EBITDA headwind guided from the Warner Bros. film slate; shares -7.59% to $8.04); earnings calendars via Tickeron and FI Handbook, November 11 (Corteva after close, consensus $0.09 on $1.77 billion, first report since the October 1 Vylor spin-off; Franco-Nevada after close, $1.77 on $568.4 million; Veterans Day — equity markets open, bond market closed); StockSetups and Quantellect closing scans, November 10 (most active by dollar volume: NVDA about $83.27 billion, AMD $28.23 billion, MU $17.99 billion; AMD $515.21, +1.30%; MU $724.86, -1.13%; AVGO $331.98, +3.91%; TTWO $224.64, +8.31% on GTA VI pre-order reports; MARA $7.34, about +10.5%; PEPG $4.62, +93.31% on 18.7 million shares vs a 2.0 million 20-day average, proposed $125 million offering announced after the close; TTEC $2.39, +71.33% on 8.67 million shares vs a 0.71 million average, Q3 adjusted EPS $0.22 and revenue $492.2 million missing some estimates, guidance reaffirmed, credit facility extended to November 2028, net debt about $744 million; SMX $19.22, +105.6%, reverse-split and tiny-float technical move, no fundamental catalyst found); PepGen FREEDOM2-DM1 Phase 2 release, November 10 (PGN-EDODM1 10 mg/kg: mean splicing correction 46.5% at Week 13 vs 6.8% placebo, highest reported in a multiple-dose DM1 study; five of six treated participants above 20%, four above 50%; video hand opening time improved 3.9 seconds, about 52.7%, at Week 16; no serious or severe adverse events; U.S. enrollment under an FDA partial clinical hold since March 2026, cohort dosed at international sites); Abbott UltiSynq approval via Abbott release and Fierce Biotech, November 10 (FDA approval and CE Mark for the UltiSynq defibrillation lead delivering conduction-system pacing and defibrillation from the left bundle branch area; FDA breakthrough device designation; ASCEND CSP IDE trial, about 205 patients: implant success 98.5%, true or likely left bundle branch pacing 86%, major-complication-free rate 97.5% at three months, defibrillation success 100%); Yahoo Finance, Coinbase Exchange and Kraken (oversold screener, 126 assets, computed November 11, 2026; 21 flagged, top five listed in the post). Not financial advice.